On Tuesday, in my town of residence, Alexandria, Virginia, there was a remarkable electoral result. A special election was held to fill the seat of Democrat state legislator Brian Moran. Moran is the younger brother of long-time Congressman for Alexandria and Arlington, Jim Moran, and the U.S. Representative’s sibling gave up his seat so that he could campaign full-time for the Democrat nomination for Governor.
Now if you are unfamiliar with the politics of the Old Dominion, let me explain that Alexandria, right across the Potomac from the nation’s capital in the District of Columbia, is one of the most Democrat areas of the state, inhabited by Government bureaucrats and their toadies and sycophants in the private sector. This state delegate seat, the 46th, has always been held by a Democrat and in recent years, the local Republicans have often been unable to find a candidate to contest it.
This time, however, the GOP did find a candidate and to everyone’s astonishment, he came within 16 votes of winning the special election and is now demanding a recount of the narrow victory of his Democrat opponent.
After the triumph of the blue forces in November, including Wonder Boy being the first Democrat in over 40 years to win the electoral votes of Virginia, this is welcome news for Republicans, especially coupled with the recent report that the sole Republican candidate for governor, Attorney General Robert McDonnell has raised more campaign funds than any of his three Democrat opponents, including big Washington player Terry McAulife.
However, we shouldn’t make too much of this, just as we shouldn’t take too seriously leftist claims of the end of the Republicans as a contender to regain the Presidency or control of Congress. Special elections often produce odd results, because of the usually low turnout, such as the recent on in which Republican Joseph Cao defeated Democrat incumbent William Jefferson in the majority black Congressional congressional district in Louisiana last month. No one, not even a GOP partisan like myself, thinks Cao has a good chance of retaining his seat in a normally scheduled election and against an opponent less tarred by scandal than Jefferson, who was caught hiding tens of thousands of dollars in shadily acquired funds in his home refrigerator.
But it does seem to show that liberal claims of a takeover by the Democrats of the Father of Presidents may be premature. Now, it could be that the victory of Obama and the left in November is the harbinger of a long reign in power, like FDR’s triumph in 1932. But maybe not. Yes, Obama managed to win three southern states this year (Virginia, North Carolina and Florida) and almost carried another (Georgia). Well, in 1976 Jimmy Carter carried 10 of the 11 states of the Old Confederacy. And four years later, he lost 10 of 11, retaining only his home state of Georgia.
Political pundits writing for the Washington Post try to prove their case that Virginia is becoming a blue state by citing the fact that the Democrats have won two gubernatorial elections in a row. True, but the Republicans won the two before that, after the Democrats had won three governor’s races in a row before that! And do you know what party the three gentlemen belonged to who won the three governor’s races before those three Democrat victories? Republicans! The pendulum swings one way and then it swings another.
Also, a great deal is made of the fact that the Democrats picked up three US House seats in the state and now have a majority of the Congressional delegation, turning an 8 to 3 Republican edge into one Democrat 6-5. Well after the 1980 election, the Republicans had 9 out of the then 10 House seats, only to lose three in the next election, a few more in subsequent elections to lose their majority in the delegation and then slowly regained it to their recent peak of 8. As I said, the pendulum swings. You win some, you lose some. Nothing in permanent in politics. If it was, Mississippi would still be giving 90% margins to Democrat Presidential candidates and New England would still be the GOP’s strongest regime instead of the one without a single Republican congressman.
And you can’t also discount the effect of pure chance on election results. The Democrats again, now can take pride in holding both of the state’s U.S. Senate seats when just two years ago, the GOP had two Senators. But they had two Senators in 1987 as well, only to see popular former Democrat Governor Chuck Robb take back one in a landslide, just like popular former Governor Mark Warner did in this year’s election. And Republican George Allen would likely be still be a senator today if he had just managed to keep his mouth shut at a certain campaign rally when he was annoyed by a Democrat operative videotaping his speech.
In conclusion, I can’t claim that the result in Virginia’s 46th District guarantees a GOP resurgence in my state, but it is certainly evidence that claims of a long reign of Democrat control, are, to say the least, premature.
